منابع مشابه
Approximating the epidemic curve
Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that are susceptible follows a more or less deterministic course. In this paper, we show that both of these features are consequences of assuming a locally branc...
متن کاملEffectiveness of control measures during the SARS epidemic in Beijing: a comparison of the Rt curve and the epidemic curve.
One of the areas most affected by SARS was Beijing with 2521 reported cases. We estimate the effective reproductive number Rt for the Beijing SARS epidemic, which represents the average number of secondary cases per primary case on each day of the epidemic and is therefore a measure of the underlying transmission dynamics. Our results provide a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of pu...
متن کاملA Second Approximation to Soper's Epidemic Curve.
I Generously made available by Dr. Max Bergmnann, Rockefeller Institute, New York. 8 Woods, D. D., Biochem. Jour., 29, 640 (1935). 9 Determined by the pea test, see van Overbeek, J., and Went, F. W., Bot. Gaz., 99, 22 (1937). 10 Berg, C. P., Rose, W. C., and Marvel, C. S., Jour. Biol. Chem., 85, 207 (1929-1930). 1 du Vigneaud, V., and Sealock, R. R., Ibid., 96, 511 (1932). 12 Microanalysis by D...
متن کاملBayesian prediction of an epidemic curve
An epidemic curve is a graph in which the number of new cases of an outbreak disease is plotted against time. Epidemic curves are ordinarily constructed after the disease outbreak is over. However, a good estimate of the epidemic curve early in an outbreak would be invaluable to health care officials. Currently, techniques for predicting the severity of an outbreak are very limited. As far as p...
متن کاملThe Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve
Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) have argued that, in regional data, the level of unemployment is related to the fevel of wages. This result is at variance with an application of the original Phillips curve to regional data, which would predict that the change in wages ought to be related to the unemployment rate. On the other hand, there is considerable empirical support for the expectations-aug...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
سال: 1942
ISSN: 0027-8424,1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.28.9.361